Performance Analytics
Risk-Adjusted Returns
The headline number is +32,958% over 40 months (verified through Apr 30, 2026). The questions a serious allocator asks next: What was the path? What did it cost in volatility? How did it compare to the benchmarks? The numbers below.
vs. The Benchmark
Cumulative growth of $1
— Jan 2023 to Apr 2026.
Manager-only growth path over the 40-month verified window. Verified third-party benchmark comparison (SPY / QQQ monthly TWR) is published in the Track Record Substantiation document — pending Polygon.io / FRED ingestion for live charting on this page.
Cumulative Growth · 40 Months
$1 compounded, manager TWR
$1 compounded at the manager’s monthly time-weighted return from January 2023 through April 2026 (40 months). Y-axis is logarithmic. SPY / QQQ comparison overlay pending verification against a third-party market-data feed.
~330x
Dean (Agentic Capital) · Time-Weighted
+32,958% verified time-weighted return across 40 months · 34 Fidelity statements, account Z06-683363
Dean’s monthly TWR observations and the cumulative chain are verified per 34 Fidelity statements. SPY / QQQ benchmark comparison shown elsewhere on this site is approximate and pending verification against a third-party market-data feed (Polygon.io / FRED). Authoritative benchmark figures are published in the Track Record Substantiation document delivered to qualified investors.
Drawdown Profile
The cost
of compounding.
A +32,958% TWR is not a straight line. The deepest pullback came in spring 2024 — peak Mar 2024, trough Jun 2024 at −36.42%, with the new high-water mark set in Jul 2024. Every other drawdown was recovered inside two months.
Drawdown is calculated against the running high-water mark of end-of-month account value, reconstructed from 34 Fidelity statements.
Drawdown · 40 Months
Peak-to-trough drawdown over time
Drawdown measures how far the account fell from its prior high-water mark. The deepest point — Spring 2024 — touched -36.42%.
Rolling 12-Month Returns
Every twelve-month
window.
Each row is a trailing-twelve-month return — the compounded result of holding through that exact 12-month window. A useful frame because every TTM start month sees a different market regime.
| Window | TTM Return | Distribution |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23 → Dec 23 | +430.7% | |
| Feb 23 → Jan 24 | +259.3% | |
| Mar 23 → Feb 24 | +316.9% | |
| Apr 23 → Mar 24 | +195.9% | |
| May 23 → Apr 24 | +64.3% | |
| Jun 23 → May 24 | +73.7% | |
| Jul 23 → Jun 24 | +7.7% | |
| Aug 23 → Jul 24 | +73.8% | |
| Sep 23 → Aug 24 | +102.2% | |
| Oct 23 → Sep 24 | +238.8% | |
| Nov 23 → Oct 24 | +214.8% | |
| Dec 23 → Nov 24 | +273.5% | |
| Jan 24 → Dec 24 | +343.3% | |
| Feb 24 → Jan 25 | +304.9% | |
| Mar 24 → Feb 25 | +223.9% | |
| Apr 24 → Mar 25 | +221.0% | |
| May 24 → Apr 25 | +643.2% | |
| Jun 24 → May 25 | +677.8% | |
| Jul 24 → Jun 25 | +1495.7% | |
| Aug 24 → Jul 25 | +801.2% | |
| Sep 24 → Aug 25 | +967.7% | |
| Oct 24 → Sep 25 | +778.6% | |
| Nov 24 → Oct 25 | +1276.9% | |
| Dec 24 → Nov 25 | +675.6% | |
| Jan 25 → Dec 25 | +417.9% | |
| Feb 25 → Jan 26 | +659.6% | |
| Mar 25 → Feb 26 | +657.3% | |
| Apr 25 → Mar 26 | +466.5% | |
| May 25 → Apr 26 | +826.6% |
29 rolling windows. Every single one is positive. The weakest TTM: +7.7%. The strongest: +1495.7%.
Risk Metrics
Returns measured
against the risk taken.
Six metrics that institutional allocators use to sanity-check a track record. Hover any tile for the formula.
1.99
Sharpe Ratio
Annualized return / annualized std deviation, risk-free rate 4%. Buffett lifetime: 0.79. Medallion Fund: ~2.5.
~7.4
Sortino Ratio
Annualized excess return / downside deviation (penalizes negative volatility only). Risk-free rate 4%.
~12.9
Calmar Ratio
Annualized return / max drawdown (469.85% / 36.42% ≈ 12.9)
72.5%
Win Rate
29 winning months out of 40 total monthly TWR observations
~6.3
Profit Factor
Gross sum of positive months ÷ absolute gross sum of negative months (935.9 / 149.1)
+32.3% / −13.6%
Avg Win / Avg Loss
Mean of 29 positive months vs. mean of 11 negative months across 40 monthly TWR observations
Sharpe in Context
A Sharpe ratio of 1.99 places this track record above Warren Buffett’s lifetime Sharpe of 0.79 and approaches the Renaissance Medallion Fund’s estimated ~2.5 — widely considered the ceiling of sustained risk-adjusted performance.
Sortino, Calmar, and profit factor are computed against the same 40-month return series used throughout this site. Sharpe is calculated with a 4% annual risk-free rate and monthly returns annualized by √12. Detailed derivations published in the Track Record Substantiation document.
Benchmark Comparison
What else could
$30,000 have done?
Same 40-month period (Jan 2023 – Apr 2026). Buy-and-hold returns for the most-cited tech and semiconductor benchmarks, alongside Dean’s account.
| Vehicle | Description | Cumulative Return |
|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 (broad market) · approximate buy-and-hold | Pending |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 · approximate buy-and-hold | Pending |
| SOXL | 3x Semiconductors · approximate buy-and-hold | Pending |
| Agentic Capital | Dean's personal account · same period · time-weighted return | +32,958% |
Benchmark cumulative returns shown as “Pending” will be populated against verified third-party market-data feeds (Polygon.io / FRED). The intent is to compare the actively-rotated account to passive index buy-and-hold and to a leveraged-ETF buy-and-hold (SOXL) to highlight the role of timing vs. structure. Authoritative figures are published in the Track Record Substantiation document delivered to qualified investors.
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Past performance does not guarantee future results. Agentic Capital Fund LP is offered exclusively to accredited investors under Rule 506(c) of Regulation D. This website does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. All performance figures reflect the personal brokerage account of the portfolio manager prior to fund formation and are not GIPS-compliant. Sortino, Calmar, and profit factor are derived estimates. Benchmark figures are approximate and provided for context only.